Discipline: Management
Level: Intermediate
Venue: Kuala Lumpur/Dubai
DESIGNED FOR
Geologists, engineers, geophysicists, managers, and planning analysts
ABOUT THE COURSE
Good technical and business decisions are based on a competent analysis of project costs, benefits and risks. Attendees learn a practical, systematic process for analyzing decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Participants learn to design and solve decision models. In the models, probability distributions express professional judgments about risks and uncertainties and are carried through the calculations. Decision tree and influence diagrams provide clear communications and the basis for valuing each alternative. The complementary Monte Carlo simulation technique is presented and experienced in a detailed hand-calculation exercise.
Project modeling fundamentals and basic probability concepts provide the foundation for the calculations. The mathematics is straightforward and mostly involves common algebra.
COURSE CONTENT
This course teaches the following specific knowledge and skills:
- Decision Tree Analysis: decision models, valuing additional information, flexibility and control, project threats and opportunities
- Monte Carlo Simulation: Latin hypercube sampling, portfolio problems, optimization, advantages and limitations
- Decision Criteria and Policy: value measures, multiple objectives, HSE, capital constraint, risk aversion
- Modeling the Investment: influence diagrams, sensitivity analysis, modeling correlations
- Basic Probability and Statistics: four fundamental rules, Bayes’ theorem, distribution types, misconceptions about probability, biases in estimation
- Expected Value Concept: foundation for decision policy, features and pitfalls to avoid
- Implementing Decision Analysis: guidelines for good analysis, team analyses, computer tools (discussion and demonstrations), mitigating risks
- Evaluating a multi-pay prospect (team exercise)



